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Michael Lawrence

Michael Lawrence - Australian School of Business 

PhD Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California, Berkeley
MS Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, University of California, Berkeley
BEng (First Class Hon.) University of Sydney
BSc University of Sydney

Emeritus Professor

Phone:

+61 2 9385 4417 

Fax:

+61 2 9662 4061 

Room:

2101 

Address:

Quadrangle building

Publications

Selected refereed publications and book chapters

 

  • Lawrence, M. and O'Connor, M. 'Sales forecasting updates: how good are they in practice?', International Journal of Forecasting, (2000), 16(3),369-382
  • O'Connor, M., Webby, R. and Lawrence, M. 'Judgement and extrapolation: The role of contextual information' in J.S. Armstrong Forecasting principles handbook, Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001
  • Lawrence, M., O'Connor, M. and Edmundson, R. 'A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes' European Journal of Operations Research (2000) 122(1) pp151-160
  • Lawrence, M., ' What does it take to achieve adoption in sales forecasting?' International Journal of Forecasting, (2000) 16/2, pp 147-148
  • Lawrence, M.J.; Sim W., 'Prototyping a financial DSS', Omega (1999) 27(4) pp. 445-450
  • O'Connor, M. and Lawrence, M., 'Judgemental forecasting and the use of available information' in Wright G. and Goodwin, P., Forecasting with Judgement Wiley, 1998 (ISBN: 047197014X / 0471964565)
  • Lawrence, M. 'Design and testing of a DSS to help reduce bias in judgemental forecasting' in Humphreys, P., Bannon, L., McCosh, A., Migliarese, P., and Pomerol, J.C. Implementing Systems for Supporting Management Decisions, Chapman and Hall, 1996
  • Lawrence, M. and O'Connor, M. 'Judgement or Models: The importance of task differences', Omega, (1996), 24 245-254
  • Lawrence, M. and O'Connor, M. 'The anchoring and adjustment heuristic in time series forecasting', Journal of Forecasting, (1995) 14:443-451
  • Dawes,R., Fildes, R., Lawrence, M. and Ord K., 'The past and the future of forecasting research' International Journal of Forecasting (1994) 10:151-159
  • Lawrence, M. and Low G., 'Individual user satisfaction within user led development: a longitudinal study', in Glasson, Hawryszkiewycz, Underwood and Weber, Business Process Reengineering: Information Systems Opportunities and Challenges, North Holland, 1994, pp 357-366
  • Lawrence, M. and O'Connor, M., 'Decision Support Systems for the forecasting task: design issues and challenges' in Glasson, Hawryszkiewycz, Underwood and Weber, Business Process Reengineering: Information Systems Opportunities and Challenges, North Holland, 1994, pp367-376
  • Lawrence, M. and O'Connor, M., 'Modelling the decision maker: an alternative approach for designing a forecasting decision support system', Proceedings IFIP WG 8.3 Conference, Decision Support in Organisational Transformation, San Sebastian, Spain September 1994, pp291-304
  • Lawrence, M. and O'Connor, M. 'Scale, Randomness and the Calibration of judgemental confidence intervals', Organisational Behaviour and Human Decision Processes, 56 (1993), 441-458
  • Makridakis, S., Chatfield, C., Hibon, M., Lawrence, M., Mills, T., Ord, K., and Simmons, L., 'The M2-Competition: A real time, judgementally based forecasting study', International Journal of Forecasting, (1993) 9:5-22
  • Lawrence, M. 'The M2-Competition: Some personal views'. International Journal of Forecasting, (1993), 9:25-26
  • Lawrence, M. and Low, G. 'Exploring individual user satisfaction within user led development' MIS Quarterly (1993) 17:195-208
  • O'Connor, M. and Lawrence, M. 'Times series characteristics and the widths of judgemental confidence intervals', International Journal of Forecasting, 7(1992), 413-420
  • Lawrence, M. and O'Connor, M. 'Exploring Judgemental Forecasting', International Journal of Forecasting, 8(1992), 15-26
  • O'Connor, M. and Lawrence, M. 'An examination of the accuracy of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting' Journal of Forecasting, (1989), 8:141-156
  • Lawrence, M. and Makridakis, S. 'Factors affecting judgmental forecasts and confidence intervals.' Organisational Behaviour and Human Performance, (1989), 42:172-187
  • Edmundson, R., Lawrence, M. and O'Connor, M. 'The influence of product and industry knowledge on the accuracy of sales forecasts' Journal of Forecasting, (1988), 7:201-211
  • Lawrence, M., M., Edmundson, R. and O'Connor, M. 'The accuracy of combining judgmental and statistical forecasts', Management Science, 32 (1986) 1521-1532

Research interests

  • Judgemental forecasting

Research grants

Professional awards and prizes

 

  • 1987: elected Fellow of the Australian Computer Society

 Courses taught

  • INFS5986 Research Topics in Information Systems 1
  • INFS5987 Theoretical Foundations of Information Systems
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